So what has been happening lately? Well, the last few months have seen a renewed vigor in their efforts to displace or maim ethnic Karen, with recent counterinsurgency attacks against the cease-fire group resulting in the displacement of anywhere from 3000 to 5000 villagers. 1000 are estimated to have fled to the refugee camps at the Thai border, but the rest are said to be hiding in the jungles of Karen State. This counterinsurgency effort started at the beginning of the dry season this year - with no apparent provocation from the Karen National Union, as far as I'm aware - but has now extended to clearing villages in central Burma near the new capital of Pyinmana/Naypidaw. You can read more about that in this article. The Free Burma Rangers have been keeping tabs on the situation, and this map of several of the attacks would seem to show a deliberate effort to drive Karen villagers towards the Thai border. Once villagers have been forced out by the artillery, any stragglers are captured and mines are planted.
Outside of Karen State, the KIO recently held an emergency meeting. This meeting was accompanied by rumors that the Tatmadaw is preparing to seize KIO territory. Some denied that this was the cause for the meeting, but there seems to be a glimmer of doubt. A dramatic increase in Burmese troops in the area of N'jang Yang, near the KIO capital of Laiza, has sparked the rumors of an invasion. Despite claims by both the KIO and local Tatmadaw leadership that they are "in healthy relations" and committed to maintaining the peace, in light of the following tidbit regarding the village clearing around Pyinmana, one can't help but be doubtful:
Myanmar’s Information Minister Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan confirmed Sunday that there had been clashes with ethnic minorities, but said this was because of Karen “saboteurs” committing “atrocities”. He added: “But we have kept open the door for peace.”
And in foreign relations, General Maung Aye recently visited Russia and signed an "oil-for-arms" deal. Yes, you read that right, Russia will now have the opportunity to exploit Burma's oil fields in exchange for providing the junta with Russian weapons. Reportedly, discussions are now underway regarding the junta's request for assistance with developing an anti-aircraft system. It would seem that at some point one could cease to be shocked by their antics, but seriously, anti-aircraft? This only seems to lead credence to the theory that they are paranoid of a U.S. invasion, because what other aircraft would they need to defend against? Thailand? China? Or does the SSA have aircraft I'm unaware of? It's reported that they also received 10 missile launching pads and 10 carriers in January from Ukraine.
Perhaps what is at least as, if not more, important than what the junta is doing, is what they are saying. Malaysian Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar recently visited Burma on behalf of Asean, but had his visit cut unexpectedly short after he was apparently unable to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders of the NLD. His somewhat unceremonious and abrupt visit was accompanied by statements from Than Shwe and Maung Aye that Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy were not relevant to the political process in the country. The Secretary General of the USDA furthered that by saying that Daw Suu and her party no longer had any influence. One has to imagine that they believe repeating something often enough will make it true.
These statements are significant, coming shortly on the heals of the NLD's offer to recognize the junta as a de jure government if they agreed to reinstate the legitimate parliament which was elected in 1990. It seems the NLD's offer did do one thing, which is make it plainly obvious where the junta stands on the transition to democracy and the national convention hoo-ha. In case anyone had any doubt, that is.
But, wait, it does get better. Information Minister Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan accused the NLD, exiled opposition groups, and the KNU of being terrorists. Terrorists, guys? The opposition went from being tools of foreign imperialists to terrorists? Is this some kind of attempt at fear-mongering to build support? Do you think that if given a choice between living under a genocidal dictatorship ruled by delusional generals who fancy themselves kings, or living under the rule of terrorists, that significant portion of the population wouldn't choose terrorists? And if this is some effort to lend your war against ethnic minorities some kind of international legitimacy, don't waste your time. The only countries who'll swallow that tripe are the one's who'd sell you weapons for your oil anyway. It may seem as though the U.S. has gone off the deep end with all the 'terrorist activity' clauses, but trust me, they still hate you.
Kyaw Hsan's statements regarding the KNU are even more rich. I quote:
An article in state-run The New Light of Myanmar on Monday quoted Burmese Minister of Information Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan as saying during a press conference on Sunday that the government has confronted the KNU about violence committed against the state, but the group has continued to engage in destructive acts.
“These acts should not have [been] done during the peace talks,” said Kyaw Hsan, referring to ongoing informal peace talks with the KNU. “The government’s attitude on peaceful ways does not change, and it still opens its peace door.”
The "peace door"?! Are they completely bat-shit insane? If what they are currently doing constitutes "peaceful ways", I'd sure as hell hate to see what their non-peaceful ways look like.
Along with this attempt to brand the opposition as terrorists, General Maung Aye has also spoken out against federalism. His claim that those promoting genuine federalism are looking to break up the union is not exactly divergent from their standard line, but it does seem to be a particularly strong and direct statement, and follows on the heels of the release of a draft constitution by the Federal Constitution Drafting & Coordinating Committee of the Union of Burma. This draft constitution calls for a true federal nation with a Burmese State alongside the existing ethnic states. Perhaps more disturbing is that Maung Aye admitted that unity among the ethnic groups was the only way forward for Burma. "Unity of the ethnic groups" here seems to have become a euphemism for "the elimination or assimilation of anyone who doesn't bow to our will".
All of this clearly shows what the junta thinks of democracy. They fancy themselves modern day kings who'll unite the country at any cost - even if it means murdering all dissenters, their families, friends, neighbors, acquaintances or anyone else within 500 mile proximity. Clearly, they expect to be around for a long time, and they seem to be building up to consolidating their power by eliminating or marginalizing the opposition. Yes, that is what they've been doing this whole time, but they've also been playing mind games and leaving the impression that the opposition may be involved in the process. Now, it would appear that they think it's ok to admit their true feelings - either because they are insane and think people will believe it - or because they believe the opposition to be weak enough that they can get away with it. I'm sure I've said it before, but these ridiculous games are making a fool out Asean and those countries that play along and pretend the generals aren't criminally loony. They just keep pushing and pushing to see how far they can take this macabre game. When will the money and natural resources not be enough to put up with this crap?