During the visit, Gambari met with the nation's top brass, including General Than Shwe, to whom he passed a letter from Kofi Annan urging him to release Aung San Suu Kyi. Perhaps most surprising to everyone, was that he was also allowed to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself, the first official visit she's been allowed in years.
Many, including Gambari, have hailed this meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi as a sign that the oppressive junta is 'opening up', and may even be willing to release the democratic leader on Saturday, when her term of house arrest is up once again.
Sometime last year, when I was still in Chiang Mai, I was hanging out with the guys at the Kachin house, drinking a few beers after dinner and sharing jokes from our respective countries. Anyone who's ever tried a cultural exchange of humor knows jokes rarely translate well. One Burmese joke in particular left the guys laughing uproariously while I pondered what exactly the punch line was. However, whenever I hear news such as this visit of Gambari's, when everyone gets their hopes up that changes are on the wind, I'm reminded of this joke, which would more appropriately be described as a parable. It went something along the lines of this, (and yes, it was told to me as a lion, not a tiger, although that would make more sense)
Lion, who is of course, the King of the jungle, was lounging around one day after a long nap. He spotted a deer passing by in the woods and called to him. "Hey, deer! come over here!", the deer, quaking with fear, approached lion dutifully. Lion said to him, "Come closer, please, and tell me if my breath stinks." Terrified, the deer leaned in close to lion's mouth and sniffed, replying, "Oh, no, Your Majesty, your breath smells as sweet as roses!". With a great roar of anger Lion declares the deer a lier and promptly eats him.
Next, the king spots a pig, and calls out to him, "Hey, pig! come over here!" The pig approaches warily, having just witnessed the demise of the deer. The lion proceeds to ask him the same question, so thinking carefully about the correct answer, the pig leans in close to sniff the lion's breath and declares, "Your Majesty, your breath really does smell quite foul!", believing his honesty may save him. Instead the Lion gives a mighty roar again, saying "How dare you insult me!", and promptly eats the pig.
As Lion sits licking his paws clean, he sees rabbit, and once again calls him over. Having just witnessed the demise of both the deer and the pig, the rabbit knows exactly what is coming. When Lion asks him to lean in close, and tell him how his breath smells, rabbit quickly replies, "Oh, I'b so sorry sir, but I have a terrible cold, and I simbly can't smbell adything!" Lion recoils, allowing rabbit to continue safely on his way.
There are multiple parallels you could draw between this parable, the lion, and the current situation in Burma. I'll stick to the one which seems most apparent in this particular situation with Gambari, and leave you to ponder the rest. The problem for the deer and the pig in this story, is that they know they are caught up in the lion's game, but they beleive there is a way to win - by giving a correct answer. What is obvious to the rabbit, having witnessed the lion's behaviour, is that there is no right answer. The only way to win, is to not play. The lion, and of course, the junta, have already chosen the game, the rules, and the outcome, before they invite anyone else to play.
Perhaps Mr. Gambari is just playing diplomat when he says that he believes the junta is showing sincerity and willingness to change by allowing him to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi. Because their behaviour over the last few months, let alone years, makes this gesture seem much more likely to be just another diversionary tactic, or at best, a grand display of hubris on the part of the lion - believing the opposition to be truly decimated.
So far this year, the junta has started an offensive in Karen State that's involved executions and the displacement of an estimated 15,000 people, they've called the NLD irrelevent and accused them of having ties to terrorists, they treated ASEAN special envoy Syed Hamid Albar like an unwelcome houseguest, and they've been re-shuffling cabinet ministers in apparent preparation for their new constitution. On top of that,they've been harassing and pressuring NLD members to resign. It seems likely that they're once again just dangling Aung San Suu Kyi as the carrot to the UN, in an effort to deflect the pressure and attention while they continue to follow through with their plans for consolidating power.
If the speculation that this meeting has been in the works for two months, following a personal trip by second in command Maung Aye to China, is true, then it would seem the lion is just toying with us once again, finding ways to make it look like he's playing by our rules, and that there's any way for us to win. Until they take real concrete steps like releasing Aung San Suu Kyi or negotiating with the NLD, or say, not killing innocent people, I'd say there's no reason to believe the lion is not still playing by his own rules, in a game of his own design.
The UN seems to be very slowly wisening up to this fact, and unless the junta releases Daw Suu on Saturday, it doesn't look as if this meeting will deflect the Security Council's attention. And the Bangkok Post has already printed unconfirmed reports that her detention has been extended. The question remains, however, as to whether or not the UN is capable of playing the role of the rabbit, able to come up with the right words to scare the lion into playing our game, by our rules.
Linkage:
Burma Threat to Dissolve NLD
Junta Show Signs of Opening Up
Burma must halt offensive against minority rebels: UN rights experts
Burma Visit a Breakthrough, Says Gambari
Annan calls on Burma to release Suu Kyi